Sat 20 Jun 2020 01.00 EDT 603 894 L et’s be honest: there is a new cold war between China and the United States. And if either attempts to force such a choice – if Washington tries to contain China’s rise or Beijing seeks to build an exclusive sphere of influence in Asia – they will begin a course of confrontation that will last decades and put the long heralded Asian century in jeopardy.”, Loong also urges the US not to see this as a rerun of 1946. BILAHARI KAUSIKAN June 30, 2020. Any confrontation between the great powers is unlikely to end, as the cold war did, in one country’s peaceful collapse.”. “The terms of these loans are very opaque and will take a lot of time to restructure,” says William Jackson, the chief emerging markets economist at the research firm Capital Economics. SOURCE. “The fundamental problem is that the US has decided to launch a geopolitical contest against China, the world’s oldest civilisation, without first working out a comprehensive strategy on how it is going to manage this contest. Dr Keyu Jin, an associate professor at the London School of Economics, says there is a global divide: “The attitude of many emerging markets to China is very, very different to rich industrialised nations. In the grimmest sense imaginable, this has already been an action-packed year. To … A similar scramble for neutral ground is under way in Europe. The British government has done the right thing in offering a path to full British citizenship for up to 3 million Hong Kong residents, even though this will do nothing to prevent the slow strangling of that city’s glorious high-rise synthesis of east and west. Indeed, the great question for the next six months is the extent to which those countries opposed to the world being divided again into two blocs can prevail, and whether the economic connections across the world are now so dense that the price of the decoupling that America is demanding is too high. Podcast Available for Premium Subscribers. With the closer economic links come political quiescence. China beat the French candidate, taking 108 of the 191 votes. One side is going to win. In Brazil, where Jair Bolsonaro’s entourage have sent racist tweets about Beijing’s plans for “world domination”, exports to China rose by 13.1% in the first five months of the year compared with the same period in 2019. Not a single Muslim country backed the west. If you don’t know what to do, do the right thing We watch with horror the tragedy of Hong Kong, the totalitarian oppression of the Uighurs in Xinjiang and the muzzling of brave individual dissidents. But it took on a new urgency with the advent of the Trump administration. A former Chinese student of mine has written a fascinating essay about the attitudes of Chinese students who return home after studying at western universities. Is ‘systemic’ a matter of rivalry between systems? The US is demanding that its allies not only admit to previous naivety but join it in an anti-China alliance. We need all the expertise we can get on Chinese history, culture and politics, and on Asia as a whole. Ten years ago during the financial crisis, China was the one to fill in the financial gaps when the US Fed[eral Reserve] had only swap lines with six major advanced economies.”. Is This the Beginning of a New Cold War With China? “At the same time, China is a reality on the doorstep. When Chinese and Indian soldiers clash with brutal hand-to-hand fighting on a disputed frontier, US secretary of state Mike Pompeo hastens to take the Indians’ side. Liberal democracies did best when they combined tough, hard-nosed defence and containment with diplomacy and constructive engagement. He never got to run an international thinktank, but the Italian communist Antonio Gramsci, reflecting on a previous interregnum, was right: “The old world dying, and a new one struggling to be born. Cold wars are won at home By far the most important single thing that liberal democracies did to prevail in the first cold war was to make our own societies prosperous, free, open and attractive. crushed by the Chinese-backed Ethiopian candidate. Special correspondent Benedict Moran and video journalist Jorgen Samso report on the “new cold war” from Nunavut, Canada. After years as a shrinking wallflower, China has also become active in the UN Human Rights Council, sponsoring motions and in July 2019 crushing western criticism of China’s treatment of 1 million Uighur Muslims. Photo: iStock. The US and China are on the brink of a new Cold War that could devastate the global economy. There are few, if any, countries in Africa or Latin America where the two superpowers do not loom large as rivals. But as the rhetoric and the threats escalate, it is becoming ever harder to navigate between China and the US in this way. Winning the New Cold War. Similarly, a tranche of eastern European countries refused to condemn Beijing. Consulate closures. Stepped-up U.S. aggression against China has been especially notable in … Chinese tariff threat opens up barley market May 14, 2020 Markets. Unity is strength At the moment, the liberal world is at sixes and sevens over China. It is an idea that might fly if Joe Biden is elected US president. New-Age War The first major difference in the coming Cold War with Beijing is in the military realm. ... China hawks in the U.S. aren't calling for a new Cold War either, but it's a risk they are willing to take in order to push back against an expansive authoritarian power. An earlier version referred to a D10 of democracies being “in essence, the G7 plus Japan, India and Korea”. India, for instance, long proud of what its former national security adviser Shivshankar Menon calls its strategic autonomy, is reeling at the implications of the brutal Chinese clubbing of its soldiers in the Galwan valley, an act Menon regards as unprecedented in its scope and implications for relations between the two neighbours. African countries have borrowed as much as $150bn – almost 20% of their external debt – from China, data collected by Johns Hopkins University shows. Some other sources used similar terms to refer to the Cold War of the mid-1970s. I call this a new cold war because my job as a political writer is to call a spade a spade. The EU correctly describes China as at once a partner, a competitor and a “systemic rival”. This is not me, I went into theater mode because the enemy team was abusing this exploit. Cold War Against China,” as a New York Times headline put it on May 15th, citing recent clashes over trade, technology, and responsibility for the spread of Covid-19. Mexico, Venezuela and Bolivia also have strong trading links with China. Timothy Garton Ash is a Guardian columnist, Post-coronavirus, the UK must find some friends to stand up to China | Martin Kettle, Bolton's book makes it clear: Trump is the amoral charlatan we knew he was, ‘A recent official paper says the objective of US policy is to improve our institutions, alliances and partnerships, but Donald Trump does the opposite.’, et’s be honest: there is a new cold war between China and the United States. Church Militant (a 501(c)4 corporation) is responsible for the content of this commentary. In the end, it is the Chinese who will change China, not us. We have to understand why the Chinese party-state took this turn away from the more pragmatic, evolutionary strategy – “crossing the river by feeling for the stones” – that for decades enabled the country’s peaceful rise and won China such broad international appeal at the time of the Beijing Olympics. It feels instead as if a new cold war is brewing, fought as much through technology and tariffs as with conventional weaponry. Combine competition and cooperation Detente policies were not distinct from the first cold war – they were an intrinsic part of it. (Photo: Songquan Deng) China’s rise is the greatest threat to U.S. security, interests, and values since the Cold War. China’s strengths and weaknesses also flow from an unprecedented combination of Leninism and capitalism. The same will be true this time. Pedantic scholars may say the new Cold War actually began with Donald Trump’s election in November 2016, or his initial imposition of tariffs on imported washing machines and … The EU, the post-Brexit UK and a new US administration should sit down with representatives of other democracies early next year to chart common ground. The so called “Like-minded Group of Developing Countries” all backed China or sat it out. When, offering a path to full British citizenship. Wise leaders don’t say all they know. Twenty-two western nations backed a resolution criticising China, but more than 50 nations signed an opposing letter accusing the west of “politicising human rights” and commending what it called China’s “remarkable achievements” in human rights. “There is little negotiating power among African countries. In survey after survey they affirm Trump is a greater threat to world peace than Xi. The question of whether Huawei is a security threat is being asked almost everywhere. According to Kishore Mahbubani, a fellow at the Asia Research Institute, Trump has prepared for this battle chaotically. The world is headed for a … Similarly, in Latin America some surprising countries are proving to be China-centric. It feels instead as if a new cold war is brewing, fought as much through technology and tariffs as with conventional weaponry. “For Africa there is no other game in town when it comes to financing,” says the historian Niall Ferguson. Or is it a systematic rivalry? China is not the Soviet Union Learning from the first cold war also means understanding how this time is different. In return they have secured infrastructure financing and investment. Six months later, it probably would have sounded redundant, a preaching to the converted.”. Mahbubani argues that countries containing 20% of the world population are willing to join an anti-China alliance, but the rest would not. “It is as if at every stage the unfolding of the crisis has pulled back another curtain, revealing yet more ugly facets of the regime’s character and highlighting the diverse dangers that it can pose to others.”. Asian countries do not want to be forced to choose between the two. Or do we recognise the reality and try to shape it towards the best possible outcome? She concludes: “Trump does not need legally to sever treaty alliances – by treating them as protection rackets for which the protected parties can never pay enough, he obviates them. Always remember that we are addressing a society as well as a state The more we – rightly – criticise the party-state’s policy in Xinjiang, Hong Kong and the South China Sea, the more we need to emphasise that this is not an attack on the Chinese people, with their rich, fascinating culture and history. Don’t believe we can engineer their system One of the recurrent delusions of western policy in the first cold war was that it could directly and predictably change the other side’s domestic politics. Just as the Soviet Union was a mix of Leninist politics and Russian history, so China blends Xi’s Leninism with Chinese culture and tradition. This article was amended on 23 June 2020. That July vote was seen as an acid test of Chinese influence. The coronavirus crisis has only heightened the antagonism. Now, as the US squares up to China over the coronavirus pandemic, it appears as if many of the world’s democracies are, as rapidly as in 1946, reaching a new perception of the world order. Instead, they become “double dissidents”, highly critical of both systems. China has long had Africa sewn up as its biggest creditor. On the issue of Taiwan, Panama, the Dominican Republic and El Salvador have shifted from Taiwan to China since 2017. Pompeo Lays Out New US Cold War Against China Says US 'can't go back' to engagement Following near daily screeds against China, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo is now laying out US hostility, and the goal of “changing” China as part of what is effectively a new Cold War, likening it to Cold War with the Soviet Union. Yet around 50% of China’s international lending to developing and emerging countries is not included in official statistics.
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